The National Energy Board has downgraded its long-term outlook for oil prices and Canadian production.
The NEB is projecting oil prices will rise to 68-dollars U-S a barrel by 2020 and 90-dollars by 2040, in the face of lower global industry costs and stricter environmental regulations.
But those prices are down 12 and 17-dollars per barrel from the NEB’s January report.
The lower prices are expected to translate to lower, long-term production for Canada, where costs are comparatively high.
The N-E-B projects oil production will increase from four-million barrels a day in 2015 to 5.7-million barrels a day by 2040, also less than its January estimate.
Rapidly changing climate policy is also creating increased uncertainty for oil and gas, but so far it’s having more effect on electricity sector projections.
The NEB sees non-hydro renewable energy making up 12 per cent of electricity generation by 2040, up from eight per cent in the January report, while coal drops from seven to one per cent of generation, as Alberta’s and Ontario’s climate plans take full force.